CARTERET ATOLLS OFFICIALLY TO EVACUATE PLANET'S FIRST CLIMATE CHANGE REFUGEES
5 December 2005

On 26 November, the Guardian newspaper first reported that inhabitants of the Carteret atolls, six islands which form part of Papua New Guinea, in the southwest Pacific, have been subject to the first officially mandated permanent climate change evacuations. Rising sea levels have placed the circular grouping of six islands in serious danger of permanent inundation, and have left the soil useless for harvesting traditional foods.

Evacuees will be removed "10 families at a time" by Papuan authorities to Bougainville island, which is in no immediate danger of sinking below the waves. Observers have reported that residents of the atolls were increasingly faced with hunger and disease, as salt from high waters had flooded many areas, penetrated into the subsoil, was destroying coconut palms. There have also been reports of waves literally crashing over homes.

Speculation has been ongoing for some years that low-lying nations would soon disappear altogether. The Pacific island nation of Tuvalu has activated an emergency-contingency plan for evacuation, if and when the nation becomes uninhabitable due to rising waters. Tuvalu is faced, unlike the Carterets, with the challenge of persuading another nation to grant full transfer of citizenship to its entire population of 11,000.

Australia has already refused to accept the Tuvaluan population, so its government put in a petition with New Zealand. The Guardian reported in 2001 that "the first group of evacuees is due to leave for New Zealand next year". It is now thought likely that the Tuvaluan population will evacuate to Niue, an autonomous island "associated with New Zealand", and which though safe from rising sea levels has seen a decrease in its population.

According to the Guardian newspaper and the Red Cross, 65 times as many people are today affected by natural disasters in the Oceania region as had been only 30 years ago. Cyclones, droughts and flooding, have become more common and widespread and are making habitation inviable in much of the region.

Leading climate researchers now warn that the rate of rise in sea levels has doubled, due to elevate levels of greenhouse gas emissions and that the hour may now be late to stop or slow that rate enough to prevent further permanent island evacuations. Oceans are expected to rise by an average of 40 centimeters by the year 2100.

Researchers from Rutgers University in New Jersey are warning that Kyoto-agreed measures might not be reduction enough to slow atmospheric warming and polar and mountain ice-melt. German researchers have observed that carbon dioxide levels are rising at a rate 200 times faster than could result from any natural process untainted by human industry.

The Guardian's coverage defines 2005 as the "year that climate change became undeniable". Among key revelations the paper cites:

The World Wildlife Fund warned in January that polar bears may become extinct in 20 years' time, due to melting in their hunting grounds.

The Hadley Centre warned in February that chances had increased to 50% that the Gulf Stream carrying warm waters up to the northeastern Atlantic might halt altogether, dropping UK temperatures dangerously by an average 5º C and seriously disrupting the deep ocean currents, thought to be the planet's principle climate regulator.

The journal Science reports a US study showing 125 Siberian lakes have completely disappeared, due to degradation of precipitation cycles and climate balance in that region.

Amid the most intense Atlantic hurricane season on record —with a record number of tropical cyclones as well as recognized hurricanes—, MIT research published in August says tropical storms are now twice as powerful as 30 years ago. The force of hurricane Katrina, with its impact on storm-addled Gulf Coast industry and ecosystems, indicates the region will be facing more potent cyclonic activity.

And now, pacific islanders have been forced to abandon their homes to the rising waters of the world's largest ocean. More such evacuations are thought to be inevitable, as polar and glacial ice-melt continues unabated and is accelerating.

Adding their voices to the chorus of international organizations, foreign and state governments and citizens' groups, major US and UK industrial and financial companies asked their respective governments to take accelerated action on climate change, as they had begun facing rising costs related to carbon emissions, and insurance against climatic fluctuation and environmental degradation.

So Tuvaluans will likely follow in the ordeal of the inhabitants of the Carteret atolls, and the world will be faced with a stark reality: human activity is altering not only the composition of the Earth's atmosphere, but is also changing the surface of the planet it ways not intended and which benefit no one. [s]

• Guardian online text: the first climate change refugees

POPULATION GROWTH SENTENCING MILLIONS TO HYDROLOGICAL POVERTY
21 June 2000 | Lester R. Brown

FOR MORE ECOLOGICAL NEWS & INFORMATION, VISIT CASAVARIA'S ECOLOGY PAGES

At a time when drought in the United States, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan is in the news, it is easy to forget that far more serious water shortages are emerging as the demand for water in many countries simply outruns the supply. Water tables are now falling on every continent. Literally scores of countries are facing water shortages as water tables fall and wells go dry.

We live in a water-challenged world, one that is becoming more so each year as 80 million additional people stake their claims to the Earth’s water resources. Unfortunately, nearly all the projected 3 billion people to be added over the next half century will be born in countries that are already experiencing water shortages. [Keep Reading]