ETHIOPIA INVADES SOMALIA, SEEKS TO OUST UNION OF ISLAMIC COURTS
FEARS OF REGIONAL CONFLICT INFLAMED, AS ETHIOPIAN ENEMY ERITREA HAS 'TRAINERS' IN PLACE, AIDING UIC FORCES
28 December 2006

The Horn of Africa appears headed for open war, as Ethiopia has admitted, after a week of combat, that its forces are operating inside Somalia, in an effort to aid the powerless Baidoa government. Ethiopia has sided with the weak transitional government, itself exiled from the capital, while its neighbor Eritrea has provided assistance to the sectarian militia that has spent much of the year trying to pacify the country.

The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) had managed to gain control of Mogadishu and much of the south and east of the country, when it consolidated its hold on civil infrastructure in June 2006. Ethiopia fears it will form an Islamist alliance with Eritrea and other regional powers and claims the UIC has territorial ambitions in southern Ethiopia.

UIC leaders have consistently claimed that Ethiopia was behind attacks on its positions, citing use of tanks and heavy artillery, which neither they nor the Baidoa government forces have. Now, after a week in which clashes intensified and moved deeper into Somali territory, Ethiopia has admitted to its offensive, first along border territories and now in an effort to help the Baidoa government take control of the unstable nation.

By late Wednesday, there were reports of Ethiopian and Baidoan forces advancing on the capital, Mogadishu, the UIC's real stronghold. The UIC had gained influence and support by quelling anarchy through the application of strict Islamist law. Despite UIC promises of being moderate and tolerant of other sects, fears persist of a Taliban-like crisis in UIC-governed Somalia.

The White House has expressed support for Ethiopia's actions in Somalia, though urging Ethiopia to carry out the offensive with restraint. Washington has said Ethiopia has legitimate security concerns stemming from ongoing factional violence in Somalia and has expressed concern that the UIC could turn Somalia into a state-sponsored safe-haven for international terrorists, especially if their aspirations of establishing an Islamist state bring support from Iran or al-Qaeda-linked groups.

The ICRC reports at least 800 wounded pouring into hospitals with combat injuries in just a few days, and both sides claim to have killed several hundred enemy fighters. The organization has urged all parties to avoid harming civilians at all costs and to protect humanitarian and medical aid staff, to prevent the severe escalation of a crisis situation across Somali society.

As Ethiopian forces took positions inside Somalia, observers began to warn of an Iraq-like quagmire, where the population might join the UIC militia out of a sense of national defense and where factional conflict could begin to split the nation along ethnic and sectarian lines, making a full-scale regional war all the more likely.

Some members of the UIC movement have already said they will urge an "unconventional war", using guerrilla insurgency tactics to repel any foreign troops, with the specific hope of generating an unconquerable quagmire that would undermine any attempt to pacify by occupation.

Some also fear the Ethiopian offensive will enhance the likelihood that currently non-allied Islamist elements might seek to give material support to the UIC, tranforming their professed mission to bring order into an outright attempt at imposing Sharia law. [s]