LEBANON FACES DECISIVE VOTE IN BY-ELECTION, OPPOSITION SAID TO HAVE LEAD
TWO KEY VOTES COULD DETERMINE FUTURE STABILITY OF WAR-TORN LEVANTINE NATION
6 August 2007

After last summer's brutal Hezbollah-Israel war, the people of Beirut, and Lebanon as a whole, are struggling to find a way forward. The nation has nearly split into pro-Hezbollah and pro-Western factions, and talk of civil war has repeatedly threatened to become reality. Now, in a by-election to replace assassinated Syria-critic Pierre Gemayel, the district of Metn will vote either for his Phalangist father, former president Amin Gemayel, or for Camille Khoury, hand-picked by Gen. Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FMP).

Mr. Khoury, a virtual unknown in national politics, is said to have the edge in the early counting, and may be declared winner. The result would be a shock, by the accounts of some observers, to the Gemayel political dynasty, and to Mr. Gemayel himself, who some predict would retire from politics if defeated. Khoury's win would also signal a potential political weakness for the ruling anti-Syria faction.

Much of Lebanese politics is tied up with the allegiances to either Syria or the West, or to factions, both religious and ideological, so much so that Hezbollah is said to have deliberately not contested this seat in the interests of not inflaming sectarian tensions. Regional interests also put intense pressure, with the Syria-Iran pole and the US-Saudi pole competing for influence over policy and economic practices.

In part due to the standing of the Gemayel family, in part due to the intensity of the anti-Syria feeling that backs their party, in part because of the assassination of Pierre Gemayel last year, the contest for this seat has been intense and could be a sign of things to come in Lebanon's turbulent and complex political landscape. The NY Times reports "the election battle in the Maronite Christian Metn region of Mount Lebanon, just north of Beirut, proved a heated and bitter contest between two poles of an increasingly divided Christian population."

Reports from around the country suggest the tension between the two strongest primarily-Christian parties has increased in recent months. Clashes between supporters of Gemayel and Aoun have been reported. The last year has seen a number of attempts by different political factions to assert themselves in the face of potentially violent disagreement between more influential players, creating instability and the concern that political assassinations will continue.

The BBC reports "In the other by-election, held in a mainly Muslim district of West Beirut, people are voting to replace Walid Eido, a Sunni Muslim anti-Syrian MP killed in a car bomb attack in June." There is a generalized fear that violence may escalate, as political assassinations of vocal critics of Syria suggest either a campaign to eliminate that view or the coming of a possible civil war between the ruling party and pro-Syria factions.

There is a power-sharing agreement that assigns certain government powers to certain ethnic groups, in order to avoid a descent into sectarian violence. Under that agreement, the president must be a Christian, and the two parties vying for the presidency have framed this by-election as a test for the next general elections. For that reason, more attention has been given to the Metn vote than to the West Beirut vote, but both are important and tense moments for Lebanon as a whole.

General Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement looks to be strengthened, in the run-up to the by-elections, and due to the government's inability to bring political unrest under control. A victory for FMP suggests a shift away from the Phalange, raising questions about what importance his alliance with Hezbollah and other pro-Syria forces may have for Lebanon's political future: will it facilitate negotiation and dialogue, or will it harden the differences between leading parties? [s]

• NY Times: "Opposition Has Edge in Lebanon Vote"
• BBC: "Stakes raised in Lebanese elections"