SENTIDO > OPINION

ALSO VISIT

The US Presidential election is now in its final stage. There has yet to be any major "October surprise", and the two candidates are said to be in a dead heat, according to most polls. Some newspapers and polling organizations are reporting that John Kerry has opened a notable lead in key swing states, which could tilt the Electoral College to him, even if George W. Bush wins more popular votes, a possible reversal of 2000.

While the Bush campaign is desperately trying to slow the advance of the pro-Kerry sentiment in the electorate and in the press, by continuing to attack his credibility and his decisiveness, events are turning against the president. In Iraq, 49 new recruits for the Iraqi security forces were killed in a roadside ambush. A US diplomat was assassinated, while in Iraq to investigate the attempted assassination of the Dep. Sec. of Defense last year.

The attacks come just 10 days before the election to be held on 2 November. While no such events should become political fodder, simply because it's useful to exploit the emotional or the sensational, these events do seem to undermine the Republican case that George W. Bush is the right man to fight and win the war in Iraq.

Also in Iraq, it has come to light that huge amounts of ammunition were looted from Saddam's weapons caches in southern Iraq, as the battle plan provided no protection for such armaments. Press reports appear to corroborate theories that these weapons have been fueling the insurgency. International critics have asked whether the Bush administration has even begun to implement a legitimate "anti-terrorism" policy, noting that none of the political motives that fuel resentment in the Arab world have been addressed, and that the government has left some of the most dangerous infrastructure unguarded.

The Bush administration is trying to claim that no matter the circumstances, a war can never be better fought by someone who joins the battle in medias res; the Kerry campaign has been struggling to get the message across that Sen. Kerry has seen war, that he knows the soldiers often enter the fray midway, and that judgement, not inflexibility is the key to victory.

But neither campaign has been able to decide if momentum or the news of the moment should determine the undecided vote, because neither campaign has any clear momentum in the most reliable polls. History is certainly at play, and both sides want a major victory for their ideas on 2 November, but the campaigns are still at work trying to juggle rhetoric and fact in a haze of spin and mutual disdain.

Ultimately, both have been consistent: Kerry says Bush is inept and has committed errors in judgement; Bush says Kerry appears to him to be indecisive and that people can't trust someone they don't understand. But the Kerry campaign has been far more assertive in outlining concrete policies and plans for its first 4 year term, if elected, whereas the Bush campaign has relied almost entirely on rhetoric to make a case for policies which seem at present to be universally in question.