NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTE-COUNT POINTS TO KERRY
28 January 2004

In the final vote count in New Hampshire, John Kerry won over Howard Dean by a margin of 39% to 26%.

By 9:30pm ET, CNN was reporting its projection that Sen. John Kerry would win the New Hampshire primary. According to CNN, the projection is based on a combination of 59% of precincts reporting and exit polls taken by media groups. The projections showed Kerry with 39% to Dean's 25%. Shortly afterward, C-SPAN was reporting identical figures for the top two candidates, with 61% of precincts cited. After midnight, with 97% reporting, the returns showed Kerry at 39% and Dean at 26%.

Results from CNN, 10:20am ET, 28 January 2004
Kerry	Dean	Clark	Edwards	Lieberman	Kucinich	Sharpton	Other
39%	26%	13%	12%	9%	1%	0%	0%
» With 100% of precincts reporting...

Reuters posted its report as early as 8:11pm, but did not give numbers supporting any one candidate, citing instead pre-primary polls. The news, perhaps, is that the media appear to have waited until voting was complete, so as not to fall into the trap of racing for a projection while being accused of swaying the vote, as in the 2000 election.

The incomplete primary results reported were as follows...

Results from C-SPAN, 10pm ET, 27 January 2004
Kerry	Dean	Clark	Edwards	Lieberman	Kucinich	Sharpton	Other
39%	25%	13%	12%	9%	1%	0%	1%
» With 61% of precincts reporting...

John Kerry professed his love for the state of New Hampshire, and for Iowa, the two states that have placed him atop the race for the Democratic nomination. He added that Pres. Bush has divided the country and the world, and that he would use the presidency to bring people together to create a prosperous, democratic future. A 13% margin shows great promise for the Kerry campaign, and will likely boost the media buzz about his "electability factor".

Kerry sought to tap into discontent special interest lobbies, which he said have made a home of the White House, declaring bluntly "We're coming, you're going, and don't let the door hit you on the way out." The line has become popular at his rallies, and hints at the apparent reformist fervor of this year's Democratic primary voters.

Joe Lieberman told his supporters he would be going on to Missouri to continue the fight and claimed a moral victory in keeping pace with the race for third. Sen. Lieberman proclaimed he was going on "to Oklahoma!" in a playful rendition of Dean's famed high-octane list of primary states. He stressed security and moderation. Dennis Kucinich, who was the first to speak after the polls closed, said his campaign was "near the start of a long-distance run" and that his campaign was working hard to bring the world community back together and closer to peace. Kucinich also pledged to go "all the way to the convention, where we're gonna win the nomination!"

After midnight, the more comprehensive figures were available...

Results from CNN, 1am ET, 28 January 2004
Kerry	Dean	Clark	Edwards	Lieberman	Kucinich	Sharpton	Other
39%	26%	12%	12%	9%	2%	0%	0%
» With 97% of precincts reporting...

With those results, Kerry captured 13 New Hampshire delegates, with 9 going to Dean. In the overall delegate count to date, Howard Dean actually leads Kerry, 113 to 94. The count of delegates includes those won through primaries and caucuses, as well as those "unpledged delegates", not required by state parties to support a specific candidate, who have endorsed a given candidate.

Delegate Count after New Hampshire, 28 January 2004
Dean	Kerry	Edwards	Clark	Lieberman	Sharpton	Kucinich	Other
113	94	36	30	25	4	2	0
» See CNN's Delegate Scorecard for more information...

"We really are gonna win this nomination, aren't we?" said Dean to his supporters, in reference to his second-place finish. In days leading up to the New Hampshire vote, analysts had said that the top three or four candidates might have a legitimate chance at the nomination, depending on funding and margin of victory for the winner. Dean, who had been the frontrunner, has changed his rhetoric, saying that though disappointing, the 3rd place in Iowa and now the 2nd place in New Hampshire, are signs of a comeback, and that his campaign has the support to continue throughout the process.

Dean's after-vote speech focused on policy, listing his plans for reform and vowing to follow through, a marked change from his urgent Iowa pep-talk. He also focused on the history of American politics, calling for a return to a time when "we were all in it together". He also referred to Bush as divisive and said he was "tired of being divided by gender... race... income... sexual orientation... religion..." Dean added that "the power to change this country is in your hands, not mine."

It appears that not only Dean, but all of the Democratic hopefulls have taken a lesson from the Iowa hoopla, sticking to optimistic, forward-thinking rhetoric, and claiming some measure of victory, if only in the form of preparation for upcoming primaries.

Wesley Clark said his campaign would continue on through "state after state" until Bush is sent back to Texas, to which his supporters chanted "Na, na, na, na... Bush/Cheney... Good-bye". Clark said his critics doubted he could muster a viable campaign, because he was an outsider, a political novice, and assured supporters his experience comes from "deciding and doing, not talking and debating".

He said his campaign emerged from his perception that the country he loves was "unraveling before our eyes" and referred to the 44 million Americans without healthcare coverage. He said he couldn't "stand by and watch as 12 million children languished in poverty, in the wealthiest country in the world." Clark went on to lament that soldiers were losing their lives in "an unnecessary war". He accused the Bush administration of playing politics with security.

Clark, too, turned to a message of optimism, saying he seeks to appeal to people who "long for a better America", that he sees a country that wants to be better... his own take on the 'thousand points of light' message. He continued his upbeat message by congratulating the other candidates for their strong campaigns.

Sen. John Edwards talked about the need to fight for working families, about "the two Americas". He decried the fact that 35 million Americans live in poverty as a moral failing of the nation's leadership, and pledged to reduce the widespread hardship of working families.

Edwards also addressed the need to expand access to "quality healthcare" and to insure all Americans in one way or another. He went on to talk about "two different governments... one for lobbyists and insiders... and whatever's left is for the rest of the American people." Edwards said the issue of racial equality and civil rights is not an issue specific to one demographic group, but an issue for all Americans to address.

The messages of security, economic opportunity, fairness, and racial equality were hallmarks of the post-New-Hampshire speeches, and may show a glimpse of the candidates' approach to issues in the coming contests. Each of the top candidates spoke to crowds of supporters which reportedly had travelled from across the continent in order to support their respective candidacies in New Hampshire. [s]

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS SHOW ROLLER-COASTER RACE
26 January 2004

New polling data from New Hampshire shows an uncertain primary climate, with figures wavering according to poll-questions, sample populations and methods. One of the more reliable polling organizations, Zogby International, shows Howard Dean recovering from a week of media-borne setbacks, closing gap with Kerry. Other polling organizations show Kerry with comfortable 11 or even 18 percentage point lead among "likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters". [Full Story]

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