DEAN LEADS KERRY BY 30 IN N.H.
5 December 2003

A new poll by Zogby International shows Vermont Gov. Howard Dean now leads his nearest rival, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, by 30 points in New Hampshire. The poll showed Dean with 42% support among likely primary voters and Kerry at 12%, with a +/-4.5% margin of error. The New Hampshire primary will be held January 27th, and is thought to be the first big test in the competition for the Democratic nomination to challenge President Bush. The poll is especially significant, given the degree to which Dean had been treated as an underdog outsider by Washington party leaders, and indicates that the Democratic base is looking for something other than what Washington currently has to offer.

Concurrent Zogby polling shows Dean also leading in Iowa and South Carolina, the other two early tests, but by narrower margins. In South Carolina, Zogby shows Lieberman and Clark 2 points behind at 9%, with Gephart, Sharpton and Edwards at 7%. In the Iowa Zogby poll, Gephart now trails Dean by a narrow 26-22 margin. The rise of Gephart's campaign in Iowa, and the flourishing of Dean's campaign nationwide appear to indicate that grassroots organization and the Democratic base will be major factors in this term's primary process.