WAR TO UNDERMINE SOMALI FOOD, AID SUPPLIES
MASS REFUGEE FLOW FEARED AS COMBAT INTENSIFIES ACROSS STRIP FROM BAIDOA TO MOGADISHU
30 December 2006

After Ethiopia admitted to placing at least four thousand ground troops into Somalia, to aid the powerless 'transitional government' based in Baidoa, it became apparent that full-blown war had broken out between Somalia's neighbor and the militia of the Union of Islamic Courts, governing most of the country since early June. Now, aid groups say the fighting will disrupt efforts to get food and other aid to the millions of poor Somalis in need in the anarchic political and economic situation.

Aid agencies have said they will need to either halt their work for security reasons or transfer attention to aiding the wounded and displaced. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has said it would be implementing a temporary suspension of air drops of aid into Somalia. The WFP also announced it was recalling two helicopters and at least 25 staff to Kenya, for their safety.

The UNHCR has stationed aid for at least 50,000 refugees "along the Somali border", according to Reuters AlertNet, and will buy and ship supplies for an additional 100,000. But there are fears that the Dadaab camps in northern Kenya, currently housing 168,000 Somali refugees, may see an influx of another 200,000 people fleeing the fighting.

Reports suggest that civilians are already fleeing "flashpoint" areas in large numbers and could soon overburden the capacity of relief agencies to deal with the displaced. As Ethiopian-backed troops advanced on Mogadishu, the risk increases of an overwhelming civilian migration and the collapse of basic aid and civil services. [s]

BACKGROUND:
ETHIOPIA INVADES SOMALIA, SEEKS TO OUST UNION OF ISLAMIC COURTS
FEARS OF REGIONAL CONFLICT INFLAMED, AS ETHIOPIAN ENEMY ERITREA HAS 'TRAINERS' IN PLACE, AIDING UIC FORCES
28 December 2006

The Horn of Africa appears headed for open war, as Ethiopia has admitted, after a week of combat, that its forces are operating inside Somalia, in an effort to aid the powerless Baidoa government. Ethiopia has sided with the weak transitional government, itself exiled from the capital, while its neighbor Eritrea has provided assistance to the sectarian militia that has spent much of the year trying to pacify the country.

The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) had managed to gain control of Mogadishu and much of the south and east of the country, when it consolidated its hold on civil infrastructure in June 2006. Ethiopia fears it will form an Islamist alliance with Eritrea and other regional powers and claims the UIC has territorial ambitions in southern Ethiopia. [Full Story]