BELARUS POLL "SEVERELY FLAWED", GOV'T TO FACE SANCTIONS
OPPOSITION, DIPLOMATS SAY VOTE COUNT MANIPULATED, LEGITIMACY OF ELECTION IN DOUBT
20 March 2006

In the weeks before the presidential election held in Belarus yesterday, the government of Aleksandr Lukashenko imprisoned an estimated one-third of the top campaign staff of his lead rival. Lukashenko himself and various arms of his government's propaganda apparatus openly characterized any opposition to his reelection as a threat to the nation and warned of "bloodshed" if there were protests.

Utlimately, the protests did occur, but in the midst of what some have classified a "clumsy" manipulation of the balloting, which yielded an official result of 82% for Lukashenko, the bloodshed was avoided. Opposition leaders and election observers from Europe, as well as international activists, foreign diplomats and aid workers, have reported there were serious flaws in the standards both by which the election was staged and by which its outcome was determined.

The European Union has said it will now contemplate a possible sanctions regime against Lukashenko's government, and the US, which has classified Lukashenko a dictator, says it rejects the poll results as illegitimate. The US government has called for a new election, to be carried out under the close supervision of international monitors.

The election stands as an anomoly in a region that has labored to throw off the totalitarian regimes of strongmen representing the former Soviet system, and could highlight the increasingly evident rift between Russian and western diplomacy.

In an article for the Guardian newspaper's Comment is Free online supplement, Timothy Garton Ash reports:

The regime of President Alexander Lukashenko monopolised the state-controlled media and threw a third of his main opponent's campaign managers into prison. A state-sponsored exit poll (the only one allowed) declared, while voting was still going on, that the incumbent president had more than 80% of the vote. The regime also effectively shut down the one major independent newspaper.

Meanwhile, Russian pres. Vladimir Putin has congratulated Lukashenko, whose government he aids with heavily reduced fuel prices and arms and intelligence cooperation. Putin also specifically declared his opinion that the vote had been free and fair, and appears to be planning to support Lukashenko's regime despite calls for international sanctions.

Further demonstrations are planned for Monday evening, to call for some legitimate resolution to the disputed election or for the outright nullifcation of the results. The Guardian newspaper reports "eight busloads of riot police arrived in areas around October Square in Minsk, where an opposition rally was planned to call for the nullification of the election".

It is yet to be determined, as such, whether the "bloodshed" foreseen by Mr. Lukashenko, whose KGB chief threatened to treat any protesters as "terrorists", will materialize. His government has reiterated in the wake of the balloting that it views any support for the opposition as a "foreign-backed revolution" against his legitimate rule.

The White House has accused Mr. Lukashenko of direct involvement in the murders of a "pro-democracy businessman and an independent journalist", and has backed its claim by arranging for Pres. Bush to meet with their widows and call for justice.

The report by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe finds "It was deeply saddening to witness the deterioration that occurred towards the end of the election campaign. A positive assessment of this election was impossible. I most vividly regret this, but the OSCE commitments agreed to by all participating States have to be our guideline." [s]

• BBC: "US rejects Belarus poll results"
• OSCE: "Belarusian election severely flawed due to arbitrary use of state power and restrictions on basic rights"
• Guardian: "EU says Belarus vote marred by 'climate of intimidation'"
• Guardian Comment: "Belarus needs you!"
• EU Observer: "EU sanctions could follow Belarus election fraud"
• La Vanguardia: "La OSCE asegura que los comicios de Bielorrusia no han sido "libres ni justas"

BELARUS PRES. THREATENS TO "WRING THE NECKS" OF OPPONENTS
OBSERVERS FEAR BLOODSHED IF STATE TRIES TO RIG ELECTION RESULTS
18 March 2006

Belarus stands as perhaps the last stronghold of truly Soviet-style dictatorial politics in Europe. Pres. Lukashenko has spent years stamping out opposition through a combination of abuses through the KGB (Belarus' secret police, which retains the Soviet-era title), jailing of dissidents, press censorship, expropriation and propaganda. Opposition to democratic means is almost total under his rule, and bloodshed is feared for election day, Sunday. [Full Story]